Super Tuesday II

A quick note on the poll: I have six answers to give you an equal choice. Three are liberal, three are conservative. If you've listened to me or are willing to use Wikipedia, you should be able to narrow it to three and have a good shot at being correct.

First, a personal update. School is rolling along, and spring break is next week. I'm trying to get motivated to do serious work on my paper this week/weekend and over the break. Also need to start reviewing outlines for finals. I got my application for my summer externship in today, and will turn in my resume tomorrow. For those that don't know, my grandfather had some mini-strokes on Friday and Saturday, then had a major stroke and heart attack on Sunday. He's in the hospital in Oxford, and was moved to the acute therapy floor this afternoon. He's regaining some use of his right side and is very alert & aware. Please keep my family in your prayers.

Now for the main topic. Yesterday was Super Tuesday II in political circles. McCain secured enough delegates for the Republican nomination, and Huckabee dropped out, throwing his support to McCain. This is good for the Republicans. It gives us time to generate excitement and galvanize the political base. McCain's VP pick will be crucial to his general election chances, in my opinion. McCain needs to pick someone that will reassure conservatives about him, but not alienate his independent/liberal support. He also needs to think ahead to who he is likely to face in the general election. I tentatively have Obama taking the Democratic nomination, but I'll get to that in a few moments. I advocate two choices for Sen. McCain: Condoleeza Rice and J.C. Watts. I'll address Condy first. Condy is conservative and has done an outstanding job as Sec. of State. She is popular among a majority of Republicans. The negative is there is a faction in the general election that would probably be disenfranchised at having someone from the current administration on the ticket. The positive is that Condy would be a strong pick against Hilary or Obama. Still, I would list her as the second choice. My first choice, were I picking Sen. McCain's running mate, is J.C. Watts. At 50, Watts is relatively young, an important point when considering Sen. McCain's age. Watts is also black. He was a member of the House of Representatives from Oklahoma, delivered the Response to the State of the Union Address in 1997 (one of the best I've heard), and is currently running his own business company, a part-time political commentator for several shows including Meet the Press and Hannity and Colmes, and has a monthly column for The Sporting News. Watts is also conservative as evidenced by this gem from the 1996 Republican National Convention: "You see character does count. For too long we have gotten by in a society that says the only thing right is to get by and the only thing wrong is to get caught. Character is doing what's right when nobody is looking." When he was a member of the House, Congressman Watts was chairman of the House Republican Conference, the fourth highest position behind the Speaker, the Majority Leader, and the Majority Whip. Congressman Watts brings a somewhat familiar, young face to the table for Sen. McCain. He is an excellent speaker, and capable of galvanizing support, particularly conservative and evangelical support - key to exciting the Republican base - in McCain's favor. He would also be able to effectively combat Obama. Congressman Watts is also a person that I would have no hesitation in putting on a ticket in a general election, as he has proven leadership skills. He is also unconnected to the current administration, and could be considered a breath of fresh air by voters leery of supporting someone on the ticket tied to the current administration, such as Condy.

Now for the Democratic side. Hilary won 3 of 4 states yesterday, taking her candidacy off life support and putting her firmly into rehab, so to speak. Her win in Ohio wasn't a huge shock, but a little surprising to me considering Obama's momentum coming into Tuesday. My prediction is that Obama will still win the Democratic nomination, but it's much shakier than it was yesterday, and I reserve the right to change the prediction later. But I'll discuss Obama in just a moment. Sticking with Hilary, her victory in Texas was less surprising to me than it seemed to be with most media outlets. Hilary's victories in the first Super Tuesday were in large part due to her strength with the Hispanic vote. In Texas, the key to winning is not the black vote - Obama's strength - but the Hispanic vote. Obama appeared to have made ground there, and did by the closeness of the margin of victory, but not enough to take the state. Hilary's victories are a good thing for the Republicans. The longer she stays in the race, the more time we have to marshal our resources and support behind McCain and generate the excitement it will take to keep the White House, which is the ultimate goal. Now for Obama. Obama losses, while damaging, aren't as bad as being talked about by the media. Obama still has the momentum, but seems to have lost some of his darling status with the media, which should be a much bigger concern for him. None of yesterday's states were winner-take-all, so Obama will receive a large number of delegates in Texas and several in Ohio. The super delegates seem to be leaning his way, but that could change over the next couple of months if Hilary makes a strong run. As for Obama's status with the media, he needs to regain his mojo, and quickly. He's taken some real hits over the last week and is possibly being exposed. Overall, he uses the issues like a lawyer delivering closing arguments: He takes them and weaves them into his themes of "change" and "hope." But when it comes to real solutions, you don't hear much about that from him. Now that the media finally appears to be challenging him and asking him tough questions the way they have Hilary, Sen. McCain, and other now fallen candidates, Obama seems to be quick on attitude and short on answers & solutions. His dust-up over Iraq with McCain last week also hurt him, as he came across looking a bit naive and clueless. Obama needs to find his charm again, stop getting testy with the media, answer their questions with the same articulation he delivers his speeches, and re-formulate his attack strategy along with re-charming the media. Overall, the longer Obama struggles with the media, the longer Hilary can stay alive, and the longer the Democrats fight each other, the better for the Republican party. The next couple of months are critical on the Democratic side. I think Obama will find a way to separate himself, but it's going to take some effort. I personally would rather see Hilary secure the nomination, as good Republicans can always rally around a hate the Clintons banner in a general election.

Get the discussion rolling. I look forward to the comments.